Lidar has become a key technology in the fields of drones, industrial automation, and autonomous driving. Although it's still early for laser radar to dominate the automotive industry, its potential has already attracted attention, leading to a surge in related startups. Currently, 16 companies are competing in the solid-state lidar market. The question is, when will we see significant price reductions?
Lidar remains an appealing opportunity for both investors and technologists. While much of the focus is on its use in the automotive sector, companies are also exploring its applications in drones, industrial automation, mapping, and robotics.
However, it's still too early to conclude that lidar will capture a major share of the automotive market. Manufacturers are still working to bring down sensor costs. Meanwhile, new startups have emerged globally, sensing the potential of this growing field. With enough funding and time, one of these companies could eventually become a leader.
For example, Oryx Vision, an Israeli startup, recently raised $50 million in Series B funding. This means the company secured a total of $67 million just 15 months after its founding. Similarly, Innoviz Technologies, another Israeli lidar startup, raised $65 million in Series B financing, with support from industry giants like Delphi and Magna. After the round, Innoviz’s total funding reached $74 million. Both companies were established in 2016.
[Image: In 2024, the global automotive laser radar market is expected to reach $223.2 million. A price war is about to begin.]
*Orxy’s automotive laser radar products*
Market research firms are optimistic about the future of lidar. Grand View Research predicts the global automotive lidar market will hit $223.2 million by 2024. MarketsandMarkets, looking at a broader scope, forecasts the global lidar market to exceed $5.2 billion by 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.8%. According to BIS Research, the lidar market was valued at $65 million in 2016 and is expected to grow at double-digit rates over the next decade. Global Market Insights estimates that non-automotive lidar markets will rise from $365 million in 2015 to $1.1 billion by 2023.
Regionally, Mordor Intelligence predicts the North American lidar market will reach $880 million by 2020, up from $550 million in 2015, with a growth rate close to 10%.
Amin Kashi, head of Siemens’ ADAS and autonomous driving division, notes that lidar sensors have seen significant improvements in size and reliability. He highlights that some lidars are now designed with solid-state technology, eliminating the need for moving parts found in traditional mechanical systems.
“There are 16 companies now working on solid-state lidars,†Kashi said. “But their solutions won’t be ready for mass production for a while. It will take at least a year or two to complete reliability and standardization testing.â€
Lidar is not a simple single-chip solution and requires overcoming challenging environments. “Reliability becomes very important in this context,†Kashi said. Additionally, the number of lidars required in autonomous vehicles remains unclear. “Different vehicles may need different numbers of lidars,†he added. Kashi expects high-level autonomous vehicles to require at least 2–5 lidars.
Some observers believe lidar is not essential, but Kashi disagrees. “In the future, lidar, cameras, and radar will form a powerful trio,†he said. “The industry is very competitive. The best way for Tier 1 suppliers to enter this market is to partner with these startups. For startups, working with big companies is crucial for scaling up prototypes and concepts. However, despite many companies entering the market, I haven’t seen a major breakthrough compared to a few months ago.â€
Different Starting Lines
It’s not that companies aren’t working hard; startups are taking various approaches to overcome lidar challenges. Take Cepton Technologies, a Silicon Valley-based startup, as an example.
“Our core technology focuses on laser emission and sensing arrays, which determine our high-resolution imaging,†said Wei Wei, director of commercial development at Cepton. “Our resolution reaches 0.2 degrees in both vertical and horizontal directions. This is five times better than traditional rotary lidar sensors.â€
In February last year, Cepton began selling its lidar to customers in Silicon Valley, Asia, and Germany. The team currently has only 30 members but is growing quickly. Last May, they introduced remote and wide-angle lidar products at NVIDIA’s GPU Technology Conference.
“Our lidar functions more like a camera or human vision system, focusing pixels on the front view,†explained Cepton CTO Mark McCord. “This is the main difference between us and existing rotary lidar systems. Our goal is to meet future automotive needs, as people don’t want sensors rotating on the roof. Lidar will be integrated into other parts of the vehicle.â€
Cepton also has advantages such as pre-made components and in-house manufacturing capabilities. However, commercializing their technology remains a challenge. To address this, Cepton is seeking partnerships to enhance manufacturing, with Tier 1 suppliers being ideal partners.
According to recent reports, Cepton plans to refine its onboard lidar this year and collaborate with OEMs for joint system verification in 2019. “We’re also exploring opportunities in other markets,†Wei said. Cepton has already started engaging with some mapping companies.
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