Lidar is a key technology in the fields of drones, industrial automation, and autonomous driving. Although it's still early days for laser radar to dominate the automotive industry, the scent of opportunity has already attracted many startups. With 16 companies competing in the solid-state lidar space, the question remains: how close are we to significant price reductions?
Lidar continues to attract both investors and technologists. Its applications go beyond just cars — it's being explored for use in drones, robotics, mapping, and industrial automation. Despite the current high costs, there's a growing belief that this technology will become more mainstream as production scales up.
It's too soon to say lidar will capture a major share of the automotive market, but manufacturers are working hard to reduce sensor prices. Meanwhile, new startups have emerged globally, sensing the potential for growth. If they secure enough funding and time, one of them could eventually become an industry leader.
For example, Oryx Vision, an Israeli startup, recently raised $50 million in Series B funding — bringing their total to $67 million within 15 months of launching. Similarly, Innoviz Technologies, another Israeli firm, secured $65 million in Series B financing, with support from big names like Delphi and Magna. By the end of its B round, Innoviz had raised $74 million — and it was also founded in 2016.
[Image: In 2024, the global automotive laser radar reached 223.2 million US dollars. The price war is about to start.]
*Orxy’s automotive laser radar products*
Market research firms are optimistic about the future of lidar. Grand View Research predicts the global automotive lidar market will reach $223.2 million by 2024. MarketsandMarkets forecasts broader growth, expecting the entire laser radar market to exceed $5.2 billion by 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.8%. According to BIS Research, the market hit $65 million in 2016 and is expected to grow at double-digit rates over the next decade. Global Market Insights estimates the value of lidar in other sectors will rise from $365 million in 2015 to $1.1 billion by 2023.
Regionally, Mordor Intelligence predicts the North American lidar market will grow to $880 million by 2020, up from $550 million in 2015, showing a nearly 10% CAGR.
Amin Kashi, head of Siemens’ ADAS and autonomous driving division, notes that lidar sensors have improved in size and reliability. Some models now feature solid-state designs, eliminating the need for moving parts found in older mechanical systems.
“There are 16 companies now attacking solid-state lidars,†Kashi said. “But from the roadmap, these companies’ solutions won’t be ready for mass production for a while. It may take at least a year or two to complete the reliability and standardization testing.â€
Lidar isn’t just a single chip — developing a viable solution is complex. Sensors must also withstand harsh environments. “Reliability becomes very important in this context,†Kashi said. Additionally, the number of lidars required per vehicle is still unclear. “Different vehicles may require different numbers,†he added. Kashi expects the highest-level autonomous vehicles to need at least 2–5 lidars.
Some market observers argue lidar isn’t essential, but Kashi believes that’s a big mistake. He sees a future where lidar, cameras, and radar form a powerful trio.
“The industry is very competitive,†he said. “Tier 1 suppliers are trying to enter this market by forming alliances with startups. For startups, partnering with big companies is crucial for scaling up concepts and prototypes. But honestly, even though many companies have entered the market, I haven’t seen any major breakthroughs compared to a few months ago.â€
Different Starting Lines
To be clear, no breakthrough doesn’t mean companies aren’t working hard. Startups are exploring various paths to overcome lidar challenges.
Take Cepton Technologies, a Silicon Valley startup. “Our core technology is focused on laser emission and sensing arrays, which determine our high-resolution imaging,†said Wei Wei, director of commercial development at Cepton. “Our resolution reaches 0.2 degrees in both vertical and horizontal directions. For rotary lidar sensors, vertical resolution has always been a weakness, but Cepton’s lidar offers up to five times better performance.â€
In February last year, Cepton began selling its lidar to customers in Silicon Valley, Asia, and Germany. The team currently has only 30 people, but it's growing quickly. Last May, the company introduced remote and wide-angle lidar products at NVIDIA’s GPU Technology Conference.
“Our lidar is more like a camera or human vision system,†explained Cepton’s CTO, Mark McCord. “It focuses pixels on the front view, which is the biggest difference between us and traditional rotary lidar. Our goal is to meet future automotive needs — people don’t want a rotating sensor on the roof. Lidar will be integrated into other parts of the vehicle.â€
Cepton also has advantages, such as a ready-to-use solution and in-house manufacturing capabilities. However, commercializing their tech remains a challenge. To address this, Cepton is seeking partners to enhance its production capabilities — and Tier 1 suppliers are likely the best choice.
According to new developments, Cepton plans to refine its on-board lidar this year and collaborate with OEMs for joint system verification in 2019. “We’re also looking for opportunities in other markets,†said Wei. Cepton has already started reaching out to map companies.
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