Due to the lack of independent intellectual property rights and core technologies, China's LED industry is still in the low-end part of the industrial chain. The added value of products is not high. After experiencing the dividend era of “the typhoon is coming, the pigs will flyâ€, they suddenly fall into overcapacity and product prices. The downturn and the micro-enterprises are on the verge of collapse. What is the reason? Through the investigation of the LED industry, it is found that the problems and constraints faced by China's strategic emerging industries in the development process have commonalities and deserve to be analyzed and discussed in depth.
Since 2011, affected by the economic downturn in the periphery, the LED industry, which is an important part of the strategic emerging industry, has experienced a period of development crisis of overcapacity, falling product prices, and the collapse of micro-small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in 2011. The collapse of Bolent Optoelectronics and the closure of a series of LED companies in the LED field such as Vision Optoelectronics, Kabang and Andy Optoelectronics in 2012 have aroused our concern. In order to understand the main problems and constraints faced in the development of the LED industry and the demand for macroeconomic policies, we will accelerate the development and development of the LED industry, avoid the development of “heavy scale expansion, light technology innovation†and strive to achieve “scientific developmentâ€. From September 9th to September 16th, 2012, we went to Shenzhen and Shanghai, which are known as China's LED City, to conduct research, and Shenzhen, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform and other government departments and Shenzhen, Shanghai LED Industry Association, The person in charge of the key enterprises conducted a discussion and field researched a number of key enterprises in the LED field, trying to gain a deeper understanding of the development status of China's LED industry and the difficulties and problems encountered in the development process.
What are the difficulties and problems facing the development of the LED industry?
We have found that starting from 2011, with the growing maturity of the LED industry, it is affected by a series of factors such as overheated investment, European debt crisis, rising labor costs, enhanced RMB exchange rate flexibility, quality issues, and cost performance issues. The domestic LED enterprises have been caught in the development crisis of large-scale losses, and the LED industry has been pushed to the forefront due to the successive closure of some well-known LED companies, which has exposed the LED industry to many important issues that deserve our attention. In the survey, enterprises are full of confidence in the future, but also admit that the current development faces the following difficulties and problems.
First, the pace of capacity expansion is too fast and market competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
In recent years, more and more companies and capital have been plagued by relatively high expected industry gross margins, lower industry entry barriers and broad potential markets, and are competing to enter the LED industry with local government support. Private capital and publicly raised capital have been invested in the LED industry. According to the data provided by the Shenzhen LED Industry Federation, since 2009, China's LED industry has absorbed more than 80 billion yuan of overseas investment. At the same time, according to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, in 2011, China's LED industry added 132 large-scale investment projects (investment amount more than 100 million yuan), an increase of 58 from 2010. In 2011, China's MOCVD added more than 400 new devices, accounting for 60% of new devices worldwide.
In addition, according to entrepreneurs, local governments such as Yangzhou City, Jiangmen City, and Wuhu City have continued to subsidize the purchase of MOCVD equipment for LED epitaxial wafer production since 2009 and 2010. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, from 2009 to the beginning of 2011, there were more than 630 new MOCVD equipments in Yangzhou, Jiangmen and Wuhu, which only introduced equipment subsidy policies, accounting for 50% of the total MOCVD planning in China. Entrepreneurs believe that this “slamming†“leap-forward†development has triggered explosive growth in LED capacity in the short term, and will be domestically added in the next two years according to the one-and-a-half to two-year production cycle. At the peak of capacity release, industry competition will become increasingly fierce.
The highly competitive LED market will inevitably lead to frequent price wars since 2011. Data show that since 2011, the upstream sapphire substrate material has fallen more than 50%, the price of 2-inch sapphire substrate has dropped from 35 US dollars / piece to 10 US dollars / piece in the third quarter of 2012; low power 7.5 mil * 7.5 mil blue light The price of chips and high-power 45mil*45mil Blu-ray chips decreased by 55.9% and 55.0% respectively in 2011; the sharp price cuts of midstream and upstream products directly drove the sharp price cuts of downstream applications, and the price of some LED terminal applications dropped by more than 50%.
Some entrepreneurs pointed out that the current price war in LED terminal products is very common, many products are quoted once a month, an ordinary LED fluorescent lamp price of 200 yuan two years ago, 150 yuan a year ago, 100 years ago half a year ago Yuan, now only 80 yuan; like outdoor full-color P16 display, the price in 2009 is 8,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan per square meter, and so far, the price has been reduced to 4,000 yuan per square meter, you can say the price It is in a straight downward trend. Although the price decline is conducive to the marketing of LED products, at least in the short term, if the production costs of the LED industry are not at the same or faster, they will face the decline of product prices to a certain extent. Shock, have to endure the pain caused by short-term adjustment. As an industry-in-chief enterprise in the key development regions of the national LED industry, Shenzhen and Shanghai also experienced the impact from the market at the earliest and most profoundly.
Second, the overall profit of the industry has been declining, and the “shuffle†pattern has begun to appear.
Affected by the impact of the European debt crisis, the demand for LED market in Europe and the United States is weak. At the same time, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions have increased the barriers to entry of LED products, and have proposed energy conservation, environmental protection, eco-design, energy efficiency labels for imported directional lamps and LED lighting products. Higher and more stringent requirements for testing and testing, for this reason, many domestic LED companies have fallen into a situation of sharp decline in export orders. Since 2012, profits have experienced negative or low growth. For example, as of mid-August, 20 LED listed companies that published the semi-annual report for 2012 showed that the business income of the company was negative, and the operating profit of 15 companies declined, and the net profit of 70% of the enterprises decreased significantly. Among them, Weiwei (300317) is expected to decline by 94.12% to 95.85%; Huacan Optoelectronics (300323) realized a total profit of 43.635 million yuan in the first half of the year, down 39.25% from the same period of 2011; the first half of Zhouming Technology (300232) Net profit was 16.34 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.87%. At the same time, some well-known enterprises in the industry such as 钧多立, Bolunte Optoelectronics, Vision Optoelectronics, etc. have been closed down due to poor management.
It is understood that although the LED industry has not seen the so-called "closing tide", but the big environment has deteriorated, LED companies, especially the downstream SMEs, have a hard time. In the survey, some LED display industry entrepreneurs also reported that the gross profit margin of the LED display industry was above 40% three or four years ago, and the industry's profit margin dropped sharply as competition intensified and export orders plummeted; The gross profit of the LED display industry is generally maintained at 15-20%, and the net profit is generally 7-8%. Some entrepreneurs even pointed out that for the downstream links, due to the low industry threshold, the proportion of Shenzhen LED lighting profitable enterprises will not exceed 20%, and 80% of enterprises will not make money in the field of LED lighting.
At the same time that small micro-LED companies went bankrupt, small and medium-sized LED companies' orders and profits fell, it was the leading industry enterprises in a few industries seeking financing for listing under the stimulus of policy dividends. According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2012, a total of six LED companies were officially listed for release, and two companies will be ready to go. Among them, Wanrun Technology (002654), Changfang Lighting (300301), Jufei Optoelectronics (300303), Huacan Optoelectronics, Liard (300296) and other well-known domestic lighting companies. Entrepreneurs in the survey generally believe that the listing of LED companies is conducive to the establishment of their own development foundation for the industry to recover through the vertical extension and horizontal expansion of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain. Moreover, at the current downturn in the LED industry market, the scale and benefit gap between enterprises will gradually increase, and the industry profits will be increasingly concentrated to enterprises with advantages in technology and market. In the next 2-3 years, the LED market will be shuffled and integrated. The speed will increase.
In addition, due to the pressure of production capacity, the price of chips in the upstream and downstream of the LED industry has dropped significantly. For example, Shenyang Fangda Semiconductor Lighting is affected by the falling price of LED epitaxial wafers and chips, and the net profit in 2011. The loss was 17.29 million yuan. At the same time, entrepreneurs believe that the continuous improvement of human and land costs in recent years, for large enterprises in the middle and upper reaches of LED, means a sharp decline in gross profit; for small and medium-sized enterprises, it means meager profit and life and death.
Since 2011, affected by the economic downturn in the periphery, the LED industry, which is an important part of the strategic emerging industry, has experienced a period of development crisis of overcapacity, falling product prices, and the collapse of micro-small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in 2011. The collapse of Bolent Optoelectronics and the closure of a series of LED companies in the LED field such as Vision Optoelectronics, Kabang and Andy Optoelectronics in 2012 have aroused our concern. In order to understand the main problems and constraints faced in the development of the LED industry and the demand for macroeconomic policies, we will accelerate the development and development of the LED industry, avoid the development of “heavy scale expansion, light technology innovation†and strive to achieve “scientific developmentâ€. From September 9th to September 16th, 2012, we went to Shenzhen and Shanghai, which are known as China's LED City, to conduct research, and Shenzhen, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform and other government departments and Shenzhen, Shanghai LED Industry Association, The person in charge of the key enterprises conducted a discussion and field researched a number of key enterprises in the LED field, trying to gain a deeper understanding of the development status of China's LED industry and the difficulties and problems encountered in the development process.
What are the difficulties and problems facing the development of the LED industry?
We have found that starting from 2011, with the growing maturity of the LED industry, it is affected by a series of factors such as overheated investment, European debt crisis, rising labor costs, enhanced RMB exchange rate flexibility, quality issues, and cost performance issues. The domestic LED enterprises have been caught in the development crisis of large-scale losses, and the LED industry has been pushed to the forefront due to the successive closure of some well-known LED companies, which has exposed the LED industry to many important issues that deserve our attention. In the survey, enterprises are full of confidence in the future, but also admit that the current development faces the following difficulties and problems.
First, the pace of capacity expansion is too fast and market competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
In recent years, more and more companies and capital have been plagued by relatively high expected industry gross margins, lower industry entry barriers and broad potential markets, and are competing to enter the LED industry with local government support. Private capital and publicly raised capital have been invested in the LED industry. According to the data provided by the Shenzhen LED Industry Federation, since 2009, China's LED industry has absorbed more than 80 billion yuan of overseas investment. At the same time, according to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, in 2011, China's LED industry added 132 large-scale investment projects (investment amount more than 100 million yuan), an increase of 58 from 2010. In 2011, China's MOCVD added more than 400 new devices, accounting for 60% of new devices worldwide.
In addition, according to entrepreneurs, local governments such as Yangzhou City, Jiangmen City, and Wuhu City have continued to subsidize the purchase of MOCVD equipment for LED epitaxial wafer production since 2009 and 2010. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, from 2009 to the beginning of 2011, there were more than 630 new MOCVD equipments in Yangzhou, Jiangmen and Wuhu, which only introduced equipment subsidy policies, accounting for 50% of the total MOCVD planning in China. Entrepreneurs believe that this “slamming†“leap-forward†development has triggered explosive growth in LED capacity in the short term, and will be domestically added in the next two years according to the one-and-a-half to two-year production cycle. At the peak of capacity release, industry competition will become increasingly fierce.
The highly competitive LED market will inevitably lead to frequent price wars since 2011. Data show that since 2011, the upstream sapphire substrate material has fallen more than 50%, the price of 2-inch sapphire substrate has dropped from 35 US dollars / piece to 10 US dollars / piece in the third quarter of 2012; low power 7.5 mil * 7.5 mil blue light The price of chips and high-power 45mil*45mil Blu-ray chips decreased by 55.9% and 55.0% respectively in 2011; the sharp price cuts of midstream and upstream products directly drove the sharp price cuts of downstream applications, and the price of some LED terminal applications dropped by more than 50%.
Some entrepreneurs pointed out that the current price war in LED terminal products is very common, many products are quoted once a month, an ordinary LED fluorescent lamp price of 200 yuan two years ago, 150 yuan a year ago, 100 years ago half a year ago Yuan, now only 80 yuan; like outdoor full-color P16 display, the price in 2009 is 8,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan per square meter, and so far, the price has been reduced to 4,000 yuan per square meter, you can say the price It is in a straight downward trend. Although the price decline is conducive to the marketing of LED products, at least in the short term, if the production costs of the LED industry are not at the same or faster, they will face the decline of product prices to a certain extent. Shock, have to endure the pain caused by short-term adjustment. As an industry-in-chief enterprise in the key development regions of the national LED industry, Shenzhen and Shanghai also experienced the impact from the market at the earliest and most profoundly.
Second, the overall profit of the industry has been declining, and the “shuffle†pattern has begun to appear.
Affected by the impact of the European debt crisis, the demand for LED market in Europe and the United States is weak. At the same time, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions have increased the barriers to entry of LED products, and have proposed energy conservation, environmental protection, eco-design, energy efficiency labels for imported directional lamps and LED lighting products. Higher and more stringent requirements for testing and testing, for this reason, many domestic LED companies have fallen into a situation of sharp decline in export orders. Since 2012, profits have experienced negative or low growth. For example, as of mid-August, 20 LED listed companies that published the semi-annual report for 2012 showed that the business income of the company was negative, and the operating profit of 15 companies declined, and the net profit of 70% of the enterprises decreased significantly. Among them, Weiwei (300317) is expected to decline by 94.12% to 95.85%; Huacan Optoelectronics (300323) realized a total profit of 43.635 million yuan in the first half of the year, down 39.25% from the same period of 2011; the first half of Zhouming Technology (300232) Net profit was 16.34 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.87%. At the same time, some well-known enterprises in the industry such as 钧多立, Bolunte Optoelectronics, Vision Optoelectronics, etc. have been closed down due to poor management.
It is understood that although the LED industry has not seen the so-called "closing tide", but the big environment has deteriorated, LED companies, especially the downstream SMEs, have a hard time. In the survey, some LED display industry entrepreneurs also reported that the gross profit margin of the LED display industry was above 40% three or four years ago, and the industry's profit margin dropped sharply as competition intensified and export orders plummeted; The gross profit of the LED display industry is generally maintained at 15-20%, and the net profit is generally 7-8%. Some entrepreneurs even pointed out that for the downstream links, due to the low industry threshold, the proportion of Shenzhen LED lighting profitable enterprises will not exceed 20%, and 80% of enterprises will not make money in the field of LED lighting.
At the same time that small micro-LED companies went bankrupt, small and medium-sized LED companies' orders and profits fell, it was the leading industry enterprises in a few industries seeking financing for listing under the stimulus of policy dividends. According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2012, a total of six LED companies were officially listed for release, and two companies will be ready to go. Among them, Wanrun Technology (002654), Changfang Lighting (300301), Jufei Optoelectronics (300303), Huacan Optoelectronics, Liard (300296) and other well-known domestic lighting companies. Entrepreneurs in the survey generally believe that the listing of LED companies is conducive to the establishment of their own development foundation for the industry to recover through the vertical extension and horizontal expansion of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain. Moreover, at the current downturn in the LED industry market, the scale and benefit gap between enterprises will gradually increase, and the industry profits will be increasingly concentrated to enterprises with advantages in technology and market. In the next 2-3 years, the LED market will be shuffled and integrated. The speed will increase.
In addition, due to the pressure of production capacity, the price of chips in the upstream and downstream of the LED industry has dropped significantly. For example, Shenyang Fangda Semiconductor Lighting is affected by the falling price of LED epitaxial wafers and chips, and the net profit in 2011. The loss was 17.29 million yuan. At the same time, entrepreneurs believe that the continuous improvement of human and land costs in recent years, for large enterprises in the middle and upper reaches of LED, means a sharp decline in gross profit; for small and medium-sized enterprises, it means meager profit and life and death.
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