Access network semiconductor market: only two or three semiconductor suppliers will remain in the future
DSL continues to dominate the broadband access market
Since 2004, the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) has become the main market for broadband access, and the main market growth also comes from this region. In 2008, the global broadband market was about 250 million lines, and APAC broadband users accounted for 40% of the total global users. Most of the users used ADSL technology. In the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East, Africa), they are also users of ADSL technology. Mostly; in the NAFTA area, users using ADSL and Cable Modem account for half.
Based on the economics of the PON network, it was once considered to be the best technology to solve the last mile bottleneck. In 2008, the number of APAC's PON users will reach 14.5 million, most of which will still come from South Korea and Japan, but the main growth in the future will come from China, and Europe and the United States will be mediocre in the deployment of PON.
A report released by InfoneTIcs Reseach, a communications network market research organization, in June 2008 showed that the overall global PON market fell and growth slowed. At the same time, based on the high cost of fiber deployment, access methods such as FTTB, FTTN, and FTTC can incorporate DSL technology to provide broadband access services. At the same time in China, we have noticed that China Telecom ’s EPON network equipment will also support the FTTB + DSL networking method, and its application is mainly aimed at occasions such as commercial buildings with sufficient copper wire resources.
On the contrary, with the development of new ADSL2 + and VDSL standards, DSL technology has made good progress in the past few years. The increase in various business traffic and the pursuit of high bandwidth have made users interested in these new technologies, and operators are also interested in these new technologies, especially ADSL2 +, because it is necessary to upgrade from the old ADSL network to ADSL2 +. The cost paid is very low. Therefore, DSL technology will continue to dominate the global broadband access market in the next few years. In China's broadband access market, DSL and EPON will coexist for a long period of time.
Global access network semiconductor market (unit: million US dollars, Gartner Dataquest June 2007 data)
Structural changes in the access network semiconductor industry
In recent years, in the broadband global access network semiconductor market with a market size of approximately more than US $ 2 billion, the global access network semiconductor industry's revenue in the DSL access and T1 / E1 markets commonly used for mobile base stations has been relatively stable. The market has even declined; while in the traditional PSTN line card market, semiconductor revenue has also declined year by year.
The downturn in the market has had a huge impact on the entire broadband access semiconductor industry. In the past two years, the merger and acquisition trend of the broadband access semiconductor industry has continued. Infineon, the semiconductor market giant, ranks first in the overall broadband access market, and also consolidates market share by acquiring TI's DSL CPE business. In addition, Zarlink acquired Legerity, Ikanos acquired CenTIllium's DSL business, and Conexant even received a delisting warning from the Nasdaq stock market early this year.
In July 2008, Erwin Ysewijn of Infineon Technologies Taiwan stated at the BBWF Forum in Hong Kong that as market growth slows, access network semiconductor suppliers can only survive by increasing their scale and market share. And with the increasingly fierce market competition, only 2-3 semiconductor suppliers may survive in the access network semiconductor market.
According to the data provided by Gartner Dataquest in 2007, Infineon has a 20% market share, while it ranks second in the ADSL market. Yang Erwen pointed out that Infineon consolidated its advantage in the DSL market with a market size of about 1.1 billion US dollars last year through the acquisition of TI DSL CPE business. At present, Infineon has about 34% of the overall broadband access network market share.
Erwin Ysewijn, Vice President of Marketing, Infineon Taiwan ’s Fixed Network Access Business Unit
Broadband value-added services (BVAS) look forward to take off
In the global access network business profits of about 9.1 billion US dollars, the BVAS market accounts for 2 billion US dollars, of which VoIP has contributed 21%, which also makes the VoIP-based semiconductor market still appear relatively flat when the overall broadband access market is flat. Great growth; European VoIP operators have already tasted the "head soup" of VoIP, while the NAFTA region is still dominated by data services, and its current VoIP is mainly based on the ATA (Analog Telephone Adapter) solution.
Since the great success of Yahoo BB's provision of ADSL broadband IP value-added services in Japan, VoIP will also become popular in mainland China, Taiwan, and India. According to Yang Erwen, Infineon's integrated DECT 6.0 / CAT-iq standard cordless phone chip can optimize VoIP call quality and improve the functions of base stations, mobile phones and VoIP channels, and dual-channel DUSLIC-xT devices that support Infineon .
At present, although the upstream rate of ADSL2 + technology is still relatively low compared to the downstream rate, today's main video services are still based on ADSL2 + technology. Yang Erwen believes that DSL technology can choose different optimal protection combinations for different services, so it can provide low latency and jitter for VoIP, gaming and other services, and DSL traffic identification also allows IPTV streams to have higher latency.
At the BBWF Forum in Hong Kong, Infineon also launched solutions for the combination of ADSL2 + and VDSL2 solutions for CPE, including transceivers, routers, VoIP, ISDN and related software, which can optimize applications such as IPTV. In addition, Yang Erwen emphasized that many operators have focused on investing in IPTV services based on DSL technology. He believes that in 2009 IPTV will see breakthrough changes.
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