Electronic enthusiasts eight o'clock in the morning: In the first quarter of the global PC market performance, the two major market research institutions IDC and Gartner have disagreement. The core of the divergence between the two data is whether the global PC market shipments have increased slightly or continued to fall.
According to data from IDC, the global PC market is warming up in the first quarter of 2017, up 0.6% from the same period last year; Gartner's latest data shows that the global PC market in the first quarter of this year Total shipments continued to decline by 2.4% compared to the same period last year, which is the 10th consecutive quarter of decline in the data.
In addition, IDC and Gartner also reached different conclusions in terms of PC manufacturer rankings. In terms of shipments, IDC believes that HP achieved its overtaking in the first quarter and regained its leading position in the market. ASUS missed the top five in the world; and Gartner believes that Lenovo is still the world's largest PC manufacturer, and ASUS ranks fourth. Before the Apple and Acer Group.
However, whether the global shipments increase slightly or continue to fall, in the Chinese market, the two agreed that they will enter a stable. "The reason for the decline in PC shipments was mainly due to the impact of smartphones and tablets, but this process has been going on for many years, and the substitution effect has slowed down. The rest are users with rigid demand, such as gamers or commercial market users. Zhao Xiaolei, research manager of IDC China's terminal systems research department, told the 21st Century Business Herald that "from the perspective of the entire PC industry, there will be a wave of dynamics after the continued shrinkage, and there will be a stationary period in the next year or two."
The global market is picking up?The lowest shipment season in a decade, this is Gartner's statistics on global PC market shipments in the first quarter of 2017.
According to Gartner data, global PC shipments in the first quarter of this year were approximately 62.2 million units, down 2.4% year-on-year, and fell for the 10th consecutive quarter. At the same time, this is the first quarter since PC shipments have fallen below 63 million units since 2007. According to the Gartner report, "In the commercial market, suppliers without strong presence will encounter major problems and they will be forced to withdraw from the PC market within the next five years."
This so-called major issue is reflected in the demand. The Gartner report pointed out that although the commercial PC market is experiencing modest growth, it is offset by the decline in consumer PC demand, consumers continue to avoid replacing old PCs, and some consumers have completely abandoned the PC market. In addition, due to the shortage of accessories, the price surge that the PC industry is experiencing will also have an adverse impact on the PC market. “In the middle of 2016, the price of DRAM memory chips has doubled, and the supply of SSD hard drives has also been in short supply. In the consumer market, the price increase of PCs will exceed demand.â€
IDC maintains a more positive attitude towards PC shipments. According to IDC data, the global PC shipments in the first quarter of this year totaled 60.328 million units, up 0.6% year-on-year. This performance is better than IDC's previous forecast of a 1.8% decline. It is also the global PC market since the second quarter of 2012. Resume growth.
IDC research manager Jay Chou pointed out in the report that although the traditional PC market has entered a difficult period due to factors such as tablet and smartphone competition and long life cycle, users only postpone PC replacement time instead of giving up PC purchases. equipment. “The business market has begun to enter the update period, and it will become the growth engine in the future. Consumer demand is still suppressed, but the game PC is growing, and the tablet and smartphone are becoming saturated, and the consumer market will become more stable.â€
China market stabilizesRegardless of the performance of the global market, the Chinese PC market will tend to be stable, which is the common view of both sides.
"Since the last quarter, the decline in PC shipments in China has been no longer so high, and it has been relatively stable." Glinner personal technology market analyst He Lin told 21st Century Business Herald, "From the desktop, the first quarter About 4% decline, notebooks have more than 5% growth. Overall, China's PC market maintained a 0.4% decline in the first quarter of this year, less than 1%."
Zhao Xiaolei also pointed out that with the slowdown of the squeeze effect of smartphones and tablets in the past, the Chinese PC market will fluctuate within one to two years, but the overall development period will be stable. “We are more positive about the future of the Chinese PC market. In terms of product form, some new products are attracting updates from some consumers and commercial market users in terms of appearance and practicality.â€
Specifically, the commercial market is relatively stable, whether it is a desktop or a notebook. "At present, the desktop commercial market is relatively stable, including government, education, and enterprises. The amount of investment in updating and replacing equipment on a quarterly basis is relatively stable. On the notebook side, the demand for traditional notebooks in the commercial market is stable, and new notebooks such as two in one The demand for pluggable PCs is steadily increasing to meet more application models." He Lin pointed out.
Will the weakening Chinese economy affect the performance of the PC commercial market? He Lin does not think, "We divide commercial customers into government, educational institutions, large enterprises and small and medium enterprises. From the perspective of communication with manufacturers, The investment from the government and educational institutions is very stable, and with the construction of the school's overall equipment and network facilities in the future, including the spread of distance education and video education, education will invest more in the PC."
As a rigid demand in the enterprise, it is unlikely that large enterprises will reduce the PC budget. "Enterprises will not insist on using equipment that has reached the end of their life, and more likely to cut the digital project budget for services and software. "The analysis of He Lin said, "For small and medium-sized enterprises, to cope with the market crisis, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of the upstream and downstream channels, partners, customers, but need better equipment to support. Usually, during the economic crisis, Will affect PC demand, when the economy is weak, SMEs will be more willing to promote brand reputation and work efficiency through modernization."
In the home market, desktops and notebooks are in a state of turmoil. "At present, most households do not use desktop computers. The shipments of this part of the desktop are slowly falling." He Lin told reporters that "home notebooks have picked up, because the impact caused by smart phones and other slowdowns." After two or three years of experience, users found that some of the requirements still need to be completed in the notebook. In addition, many manufacturers put more effort into the design of thin and light products, and have higher configuration, which will attract users."
Therefore, in He Lin's view, notebook shipments will pick up in the past year, and desktops will continue to decline. "The entire PC market will fluctuate back and forth within a range of plus or minus 1% according to the trend of the first quarter, and will not fluctuate greatly."
Although the Chinese market is gradually stabilizing, industry competition will continue and industry concentration will continue to increase. This means that there are not many opportunities for PC manufacturers to leave the long tail.
"In the process of shuffling the PC market, some manufacturers have been washed out. From the perspective of the Chinese market, in recent years, several companies have exited the PC market." Zhao Xiaolei said, "In the future, the concentration of the industry will be further improved." The advantages of large manufacturers are in terms of shipment volume and cost control, and they have a greater chance of survival in a down market."
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