The demand for lighting and small-pitch LEDs is long-term, so the next two to three years will continue to drive the downstream demand of the LED industry chain; at the same time, the overall industrial concentration of LEDs continues to increase, improving the barriers to entry for the overall industry. The number of new entrants will be reduced. In addition, due to the gradual withdrawal of government subsidies in the 13th Five-Year Plan, the disordered production capacity of the LED chip supply terminal is suppressed, and the bargaining power of the upstream industry chain is constantly improving. Therefore, we can intuitively feel the above. By the way, the overall supply pattern of LEDs is undergoing profound changes.
Sign 1: In 2016, the upstream price of the LED industry chain increased frequently, and some products rose more than 15%.
In March, Mulinsen, Jingtai and other packaging companies once raised the price of some products; in May, when the price of crystal power was reduced by 25%, the price rose by 15%, and Sanan Optoelectronics also had some price increases; August, Sanan, etc. The price of chip companies has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the price of small and medium-sized products of Sanan Optoelectronics has risen by 10%. Huacan Optoelectronics has also adjusted the products with lower profits. In September, Mulinsen, Guoxing Optoelectronics, and Cinda Optoelectronics RGB lamp beads are being raised, and the increase is about 5%-10%.
According to the survey, at the end of the second quarter of 2016, the prices of many LED chip companies in the industry have begun to rise, and the revenue situation has improved significantly. Taking crystal energy as an example, in early September, the production capacity of crystal power was fully loaded and extended to October. At present, its capacity utilization rate has exceeded 90%, of which the red light machine production capacity is about 90%, the unit price and the profitable red light production line are Fully loaded.
According to the data, we have seen that the average price of mainstream packaged devices has stabilized. Compared with the price of packaged devices in 2015, the price of packaged devices has dropped by 50%~60%. The relationship between supply and demand of packaged devices has been greatly improved. Among them, larger package size 5630 can be seen. And 3030, the decline in March-April but has stabilized since April, while the price of package size 2835 has remained stable this year, and some product prices have risen slightly in July. Taking the packaged company Everlight as an example, since mid-June, the stock price has risen by 18%. At present, the demand for each product line has been fully recovered, and the third season will officially enter the peak season instead of just replenishing stocks. Among them, TV backlighting is the best, mainly driven by the demand for viewing in the Olympic year this year. Orders from mainland China's mobile phone backlights and display screens will also contribute significantly to the third quarter revenue.
According to the data, the global LED bulbs fell by about 9%. Compared with the global replacement of 40W bulbs, the price fell by 12.4% in 2015, and the replacement of 60w bulbs by 9.9%, which is basically in the normal range, mainly due to the improvement of packaging technology. Reduced price declines.
At the same time, the price of LED bulbs in China fell by about 11%. Compared with 2015, the price of China's replacement 40W bulbs fell by 18.4%, and the price of replacing 60W bulbs fell by 32.37%. The downward trend has stabilized sharply, reflecting the increasingly stable competition environment in the domestic bulb market. The supply and demand pattern has gradually improved.
There are indications that the supply and demand pattern of LED chips has changed.
Sign 2: In 2016, LED lighting companies' revenues ushered in an inflection point, and many companies' revenues increased by over 40% year-on-year.
Downstream LED lighting companies' revenues have improved significantly, verifying that the LED lighting supply and demand pattern has ushered in a turning point and reversed the 15-year decline. From the listed companies in the first half of 2016, revenues can be verified. Sunshine and Foshan revenues increased by 40% year-on-year. NVC's revenue increased by more than 90% year-on-year, which is due to the low LED lighting application base in the first half of the year. The worst time has passed. In 2016, the overall demand and supply pattern of downstream LED lighting applications has already turned around.
Demand side: LED lighting penetration space is still large, small spacing ushers in the explosion
According to UBS data, the LED chip end demand in 2015 has exceeded 90,000 square inches. It is expected that the growth rate will still be 20% in 2016. Although the LED chip's luminous efficiency will increase, the LED backlight will have a demand area for the chip. It will definitely decline, but with the further increase of LED lighting penetration and the outbreak of small-pitch demand, it will continue to push the demand for LED chip terminals.
Solar lighting systems use solar cells to convert solar energy in nature into electricity and provide it to LED light sources. Due to the low voltage, energy saving and long-term characteristics of LED light sources, the application of solar LED lighting systems will achieve high energy efficiency, reliability, and practical value.
Solar panels are used to receive solar radiation during the day and convert light energy intoelectrical energy stored in the storage battery by controller while the battery starts discharging and illuminate the light source in the evening. In the morning, the controller will switch off the battery and stop discharging according to the illuminance. The main function of the controller is to control the street lamp switch, adjust the brightness, and protect the battery to prolong the service life.
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