The Chinese economy is no longer in an era of rapid growth and is now called the "new normal." The Internet economy is similar, entering the era of experience upgrades from the era of rapid growth driven by demographic dividends. When there is no large-scale influx of users in the three-line, four-line, five-line and six-line cities, the number of new users on the Internet is gradually decreasing. This point is particularly evident in this year, and the cost of obtaining passengers remains high. Traffic acquisition has become a major event for startups.
The era of extensive delivery of users has passed, and the Internet economy has entered a new normal period.
The Internet used to have two waves of dividends:
A wave of PC era from 1998 to 2010, news portals, games, social networks, etc. have risen rapidly in this era, especially after 2005, PC penetration rate exceeded 20%, the second batch of websites, such as market, 58 etc. Rise with the trend;
On June 10, 2008, Apple released the second generation of iPhone: iPhone 3G was released in the same year, the birth of the App Store, the era of mobile Internet, a more exciting era. A large influx of people who are far larger than the PC Internet era in 2010-2015 has led to the rapid development of the mobile Internet, and new players such as communication, social networking, games, and e-commerce have sprung up. Such as WeChat, Didi, Meituan, today's headlines and so on.
In general, the Internet people in China have been happy for the past 16 years. But before the next entry-level hardware has yet to reach 20% penetration, the Chinese Internet, like the Chinese economy, will enter a relatively long-term new normal: an era without demographic dividends.
Driving the rapid development of China's Internet economy will no longer be a demographic dividend, but a series of intensive work: customer group stratification, product design optimization, operational refinement, and finally the overall experience upgrade of stock users. Why is there a word "consumption upgrade" so hot today, because the increment has been dug up, and only the value of the old user can be tapped.
But the problem is that under the new normal of the Internet, the upgrade of the experience of the existing users alone cannot form a truly powerful driver.
Where is the driving force for the future?
In the history of the Internet, the real driving force came from the change in hardware entry.
As mentioned earlier, the popularity of PCs has led to a significant increase in the number of websites, from news, games, e-commerce, search, communication, travel, work, life and other websites, and finally led to the development of the Internet economy. . And a lot of changes from the popularity of smart phones, detonated the Internet market, released a large number of investment and entrepreneurial opportunities, from O2O, travel, e-commerce, communications have produced a huge increase. As the user is saturated, these driving forces are gradually slowing down.
So where is the new hardware entry? Is VR? AR? what is this else? Although AR and VR are trends, from the current point of view, all hardware portals are not up to the level of PCs and smartphones. The trend is still unclear. Under such circumstances, how to dig deep holes, build walls, and accumulate grain?
How to prepare for the next vent and the next real driving force? Imagine what kind of picture would be when artificial intelligence became an infrastructure in finance, medical care, home life, work, travel, communication, e-commerce, etc.?
From the current point of view, artificial intelligence is the most likely driver of the Internet and even the Chinese economy before the arrival of hundreds of millions of hardware entries. Obviously, Baidu puts the treasure on artificial intelligence. From the first quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2016, Baidu’s research and development expenditure on artificial intelligence reached 28.135 billion US dollars. Apple has only acquired three artificial intelligence companies this year; Google also acquired the chat robot development platform API.AI on September 20, and the next day Amazon acquired the chat machine recognition company Angel.ai.
And so on, the giants are laying out artificial intelligence.
In the future, only one kind of entrepreneurship is “real entrepreneurshipâ€. What is the real business? Create a product or industry that can form big data, a product or industry that can learn intelligently based on big data. This big data is not because there is a lot of data, but because it turns into intelligent data through intelligent learning, and understands people's needs. When a system that truly understands people's needs is born, industry efficiency will be greatly improved because it understands demand, has the lowest intermediate cost, and never tires.
Some so-called entrepreneurial accumulations are just building blocks. It seems that the walls are tall and overlooking the sentient beings, but they are vulnerable. As long as there are capital attacks or substitute products, the Uighurs will be destroyed immediately. Some entrepreneurs have big data from users, big data in the industry, and intelligent learning mechanisms based on these data, gradually erecting a truly unbreakable moat, letting your capital chaos and bombing, let your team take it to the next level. If you flow like a tsunami, I will not move.
This is the only real entrepreneurship, and the rest are just temporary companies that are alive, and have a big or small rush. Whether you call AR, VR, or red, live, whether it's hardware or software, there are two core things:
The first is to obtain enough big data, the source of valuable data, not the water injection data;
Second, find the right way to train these data, the better the taming, the more control the industry, the more irreplaceable.
If you can't do both, all the concepts are essentially virtual.
From this perspective, information, auto, finance, education, medical care, sports... all kinds of intelligent systems based on big data will only become more and more terrible. At present, some companies have taken the lead, and it is very difficult for the latecomers to catch up.
This is the real power to shake the industry, all future industries will be reconstructed by data, 90% of people will be eliminated. Deeply aware of this, and have the ability to eliminate all odds, restrain the current temptation, give up greed, give up more choices, focus on this field to do deep-rooted entrepreneurs is the future big! They will really control the world!
The second half started? Good play behind
Artificial intelligence is the driving force behind user experience upgrades. If the user's habit of human-computer interaction is gradually changed from text input to voice and picture input, companies with technical accumulation in natural speech recognition and computer visual recognition will take the lead in the future.
In the next five to ten years, there will be a completely different pattern change. For example, many people are watching Baidu at present, because the current market value gap, saying that Baidu should be removed from BAT, become AT. But if you put your time a little longer, there are a lot of variables. It’s hard to say who will hold the next wave of the vent. Each leader has been in the air for three or five years. Today's hegemon is not necessarily the eternal overlord. Today's laggards do not mean that there is no chance to overtake the corner.
If Baidu misses the ticket for the mobile Internet era, who is more likely to get the tickets for the artificial intelligence era?
Today's fire is live broadcast, fire is a consumption upgrade, but it depends on who is using higher technology to improve the efficiency of the industry, who is doing things for the next decade. The real second half of the Internet has just begun, and the current model battle is not the end. The future of artificial intelligence is the biggest variable in the subversive pattern.
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